2028 looms large for Bitcoin

Inside the article

Major events

The year 2028 will be a big one for crypto giant Bitcoin.

There are two reasons for this.

Firstly, the network’s next halving is set for 2028.

Bitcoin halving occurs every four years and is aimed at cutting the reward for mining new blocks by 50%.

The purpose of this process is to reduce the supply of new coins, bolster scarcity and control inflation to keep Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of coins at 21 million.

It’s a major market event which influences value.

The second-to-last year of the decade is noted for another significant reason.

Should the US abide by its constitution, this will be American president Donald Trump’s final year in office.

Trump may have millions of detractors but he has backed the crypto market to the hilt since the start of his second term in 2025.

Historical evidence

If these two events are unpacked further, it becomes clear why they are so important to Bitcoin.

The halving programme has taken place in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Each of these occasions has sparked a massive rally in Bitcoin price USD.

The bull period can last up to 18 months and, if history is anything to go by, price records also tend to tumble.

A look at the statistics from 2012-2020 paints a remarkable picture.

The first halving saw a rally of 1 800%, the second 3,000% and the third 600%.

The 2024 halving brought success as well.

When it occurred in April 2024, Bitcoin was trading at around $64 000. By the end of that year, it was at $100 000.

While the history books might point to another surge in 2028, the second event – the Trump administration’s swansong year – could turn the tables on the trend.

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Donald Trump is not in the business of making friends, both in his own country or abroad.

The punitive tariffs he has placed on other countries and deployment of ICE agents domestically are unlikely to put him on many people’s Christmas lists, least of all those of his Democratic Party rivals.

And this is where Bitcoin might be sweating.

The US has become a deeply-divided nation.

Its politics have become so volatile that policy can even be implemented out of spite.

While the Democratic Party’s old guard will recognise the power of crypto, the temptation to roll back everything that carries Trump’s stamp of approval will be there.

That is not to say this will happen, but tensions have become so high that it cannot be ruled out anymore.

It is worth bearing in mind that Trump himself signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve shortly after coming to office.

This is a government-held stockpile of Bitcoin and is viewed as a strategic national asset to guard against financial upheavals and diversify the country’s wealth.

Perceptions are strong in politics and crypto, and Trump detractors will not quickly forget which network he backed during his tenure.